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The Monday Morning Memo

Statistics versus Stereotypes

March 24, 2014

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Today we call it Data but we used to call it Statistics.

Statistics are boring. That’s why a clever boy in Silicon Valley gave them a new and better name.

A scientist is willing to change a belief when presented with data, facts and logic.

But very few customers are scientists. This is why you must accommodate their perspectives, reinforce their biases, anticipate their preferences and leverage their stereotypes.

In his book, How to Win Friends and Influence People, Dale Carnegie said, “A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still.”

Carnegie was quoting Benjamin Franklin who said it 100 years earlier.

Franklin discovered the idea in a satirical poem, Hudibras, written by Samuel Butler 100 years before that, in 1664.

That statement, “A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still,” resonated with Carnegie, Franklin and Butler, just as it does with every person who has vainly attempted to use facts and logic to overcome a belief.

In the words of Andrew Lang, we generally use statistics “as a drunken man uses a lamppost, for support rather than for illumination.”

This is because data, facts and logic are not the keys to the mind.

The keys to the mind are metaphors, connecting the unfamiliar to the familiar, the unknown to the known. Metaphors employ Symbolic thought, the only type of thought that bridges the unconscious to the conscious, the right brain to the left, the category to the specific, the pattern to the purpose.

Verbal thought is the sound of words in your mind.
Analytical thought embraces data, facts and logic.
Abstract thought embraces patterns of events and patterns of answers. It’s a nonverbal, subjective reality built on preferences, prejudices and stereotypes.

Symbolic thought is a bridge that begins in the land of Abstract thought and ends in the land of Analytical thought. Parables, music and metaphors are powerful expressions of Symbolic thought. Each is more persuasive than Data.

You’ve heard it said that, “Every person is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts.” Yet we routinely craft our own facts from the fabric of personal experiences, preferences and prejudices.

A stereotype is nothing more than a pattern we’ve observed. This pattern isn’t always predictive, but it is a pattern nonetheless and we trust it. We do this in the misbegotten belief that we have correctly interpreted our past experiences and that our preferences and prejudices are, in fact, correct and reliable interpretations of objective reality.

We’re a funny, funny species, aren’t we?

We’re coaching a basketball game.
Cedric makes 4 baskets in less than 2 minutes so we conclude that Cedric has “a hot hand,” he’s “in the zone and has a feel for the basket,” so we instruct the other players to feed Cedric the ball.

Does it surprise you to learn that all the data clearly indicates that a player who makes 4 consecutive baskets in less than 2 minutes of game time is no more likely to make his next shot than usual? But every coach, every player and every fan of the sport will continue to feed Cedric the ball.

We don’t trust data nearly so much as we trust our heart.

Digital marketing is here to stay and it provides us with data beyond imagination. But data doesn’t change the mind. At best, it reinforces a decision that was already made in the heart. 

Win the heart and the mind will follow. Don’t fill your messages with data. Instead, use metaphors that connect your idea to your customer’s world. Because a man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still.

Some things are slow to change. Some things never do.

Roy H. Williams


Nova Covington started her sunscreen company,
Goddess Garden, 10 years ago when she was searching for a solution to allergies her newborn daughter had to the chemicals contained in conventional bath and skin care products. All-natural Goddess Garden has enjoyed sunny growth from day one. Nova shares her formulation for success this week as she makes clear that necessity really is the mother of invention. Hear it for yourself at MondayMorningRadio.com

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Random Quote:

“Finally when we were eating the cherry tart and had one last carafe of wine, he said, “You know I never slept with anyone except Zelda.”

“No, I didn’t.”

“I thought I had told you.”

“No, you told me a lot of things but not that.”

“That is what I have to ask you about.”

“Good. Go on.”

Zelda said that the way I was built I could never make any woman happy and that was what upset her originally. She said it was a matter of measurements.  I have never felt the same since she said that and I have to know truly.”

“Come out to the office,” I said.

“Where is the office?”

“Le water,” I said.

We came back into the room and sat down at the table.

“You’re perfectly fine,” I said. “You are O.K.  There’s nothing wrong with you. You look at yourself from above and you look foreshortened. Go over to the Louvre and look at the people in the statues and then go home and look at yourself in the mirror in profile.

“Those statues may not be accurate.”

“They are pretty good.  Most people would settle for them.”

“But why would she say it?”

“To put you out of business. That’s the oldest way of putting people out of business in the world. Scott, you asked me to tell you the truth and I can tell you a lot more but this is the absolute truth and all you need. You could have gone to see a doctor.”

“I didn’t want to. I wanted you to tell me truly.”

“Now do you believe me?”

“I don’t know,” he said.

“Come on over to the Louvre,” I said. “It’s just down the street and across the river.”

We went over to the Louvre and he looked at the statues but still he was doubtful about himself.

“It is not basically a question of the size in repose,” I said. “It is the size that it becomes. It is also a question of angle.”

I explained to him about using a pillow and a few other things that might be useful for him to know.

“There is one girl,” he said, “who has been very nice to me, but after what Zelda said –”

“Forget what Zelda said,” I told him. “Zelda is crazy. There’s nothing wrong with you. Just have confidence and do what the girl wants. Zelda just wants to destroy you.”

“You don’t know anything about Zelda.”

“All right,” I said. “Let it go at that. But you came to lunch to ask me a question and I’ve tried to give you an honest answer.”

But still he was doubtful.

 “

- F. Scott Fitzgerald to Ernest Hemingway, A Moveable Feast, by Ernest Hemingway, p. 126

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