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The Monday Morning Memo

I don’t care if it rains or freezes
Long as I’ve got my plastic Jesus
Sitting on the dashboard of my car.
Comes in colors pink and pleasant
Glows in the dark cause it’s iridescent
Take it with you … when you travel far. 

Get yourself a sweet Madonna
Dressed in rhinestones sitting on a
Pedestal of abalone shell.
Going ninety I ain’t scary
Cause I’ve got the Virgin Mary
Assuring me that I won’t go to hell.

written by “Lalo” Schifrin
(born June 21, 1932) 

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Random Quote:

“University of Pennsylvania psychologist Philip Tetlock made a 20-year study that tested the ability of experts to make accurate predictions about geopolitical events. The results showed that the average expert in a given subject was also, on average, a horrific forecaster. Some of the most narrowly specialized experts actually performed worse as they accumulated credentials. It seemed that the more vested they were in a worldview, the more easily they could always find information to fit it.

There was, however, one subgroup of scholars that did markedly better: those who were not intellectually anchored to a narrow area of expertise. They did not hide from contrary and apparently contradictory views, but rather crossed disciplines and political boundaries to seek them out.

Tetlock gave the forecasters nicknames, borrowed from a well-known philosophy essay: the narrow-view hedgehogs, who ‘know one big thing’ (and are terrible forecasters), and the broad-minded foxes, who ‘know many little things’ (and make better predictions). The latter group’s hunt for information was a bit like a real fox’s hunt for prey: They roam freely, listen carefully and consume omnivorously.

Eventually, Tetlock and his collaborator, Barbara Mellers, assembled a team of foxy volunteers, drawn from the general public, to compete in a forecasting tournament. Their volunteers trounced a group of intelligence analysts who had access to classified information. As Tetlock observed of the best forecasters, it is not what they think but how they think. They argue differently; foxes frequently used the word ‘however’ in assessing ideas, while hedgehogs tended toward ‘moreover.’ Foxes also looked far beyond the bounds of the problem at hand for clues from other, similar situations.”

- David Epstein, The Washington Post, July 20, 2019

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