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The Monday Morning Memo

 

A risk premium is the minimum difference
that will entice a person to make an uncertain bet.

The certainty equivalent is where the guaranteed payoff reaches “equilibrium” with a higher but uncertain payoff. (Mathematically, it’s the amount of the higher payout minus the risk premium. Stay with me.)

Suppose a game show contestant may choose one of two doors, one that hides $1,000 and one that hides $0. Further suppose the host will allow the contestant to take $500 instead of choosing a door. All three options (door 1, door 2, or $500) have the same expected value of $500, so there is no risk premium for choosing the doors instead of taking the guaranteed $500.

A contestant without fear of risk will be indifferent to these choices and consider each of them to be equal. A risk averse contestant will likely accept the guaranteed $500.

If too many contestants are risk averse, the game show may encourage contestants to take one of the riskier choices (door 1 or door 2) by creating a risk premium. If the game show offers $2,000 behind the good door, increasing to $1,000 the expected value of choosing doors 1 or 2, the risk premium becomes $500 (i.e., $1,000 expected value − $500 guaranteed amount). Contestants with a minimum acceptable rate of return of $500 will likely choose a door instead of accepting the guaranteed $500. – wikipedia

Risk premium and certainty equivalent are technical terms in a new science called Credibility Theory. It's an actuarial science that promises to be very useful in marketing.

Yes, Wizard Academy is looking into it.

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Random Quote:

“

Bob Dylan’s song “Shelter from the Storm” contains several references to Christ, including:

The narrator as Christ

The narrator is both God and man, and some say the lyrics imply that he is Christ himself. For example, the narrator says, “I came in from the wilderness, a creature void of form,” which alludes to Christ’s 40 days in the desert. The narrator also uses the phrase “I got my signals crossed,” which hints at his death by crucifixion. 

The fifth verse

The fifth verse includes the line, “Suddenly I turned around/And she was standing there/With silver bracelets on her wrist/And flowers in her hair/She walked up to me so gracefully/And took my crown of thorns”. 

The contrast between the realm of the soul and the visible world

The song includes the line, “Well, the deputy walks on hard nails and the preacher rides a mount”. The deputy is likely to be Christ, and the preacher could also be Christ. 

Following Jesus

The song includes the line, “In a little hilltop village, they gambled for my clothes. I bargained for salvation and she gave me a lethal dose”. 

“Shelter from the Storm” was recorded in 1974 and released on Dylan’s 15th studio album, Blood on the Tracks, in 1975. 

“

- Google, when I typed "Christ references in Bob Dylan lyrics Shelter from the Storm" ito the search block

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